Lindy's Lollapalooza Land: Garrett Motion

Asymmetric Situation with 3x Upside to Downside - Under Conservative Assumptions.

Let’s be clear upfront: I am a generalist investor with no particularly deep passion for or insights into the automotive industry. So please enter the Lollapalooza Land I describe at your own peril.

This article is an amalgamation of information from Value Investors Club write-ups, and the

Special Situation Investing

report with a range of my original thoughts, analysis, and various mental models applied. I hope you enjoy it.

Article Outline

• TL;DR

• Brief Thesis

• Equity Summary

• Company & Peers

• Mental Models to Use

• The Credit Rating

• Valuation

• Risks

• Variant Perception

• What About You, Mr. Bond?

• Conclusion

TL;DR

• Garrett Motion may not be the fast-melting ice cube the market perceives it to be. The company’s financials show that it is in a strong competitive position.

• Therefore the Garrett Motion common shares represent an asymmetric risk-reward situation.

  • My liquidation scenario sees -11% annual returns.